Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.761637 12.348370 14.061876 16.046511 18.278450 20.707436 23.547429
2025-04-13 7.960674 9.988616 12.353469 15.302040 18.866015 23.019938 28.212317
2025-04-20 6.937881 9.212751 11.996800 15.630373 20.220333 25.796051 33.048858
2025-04-27 6.141356 8.581895 11.700573 15.939098 21.504411 28.512420 37.946612
2025-05-04 5.385581 7.876555 11.184168 15.842585 22.169188 30.387565 41.782199
2025-05-11 4.724434 7.210682 10.632097 15.612131 22.588048 31.910110 45.184190
2025-05-18 4.256690 6.755620 10.308314 15.635858 23.308913 33.824968 49.157713
2025-05-25 3.905674 6.427939 10.123573 15.819489 24.234164 36.034403 53.611364
2025-06-01 3.551357 6.054685 9.831037 15.806653 24.851248 37.814301 57.517399
2025-06-08 3.209303 5.663362 9.471818 15.653615 25.230945 39.246541 60.963030
2025-06-15 2.973578 5.418099 9.312549 15.783713 26.025454 41.300368 65.384292
2025-06-22 2.835530 5.320181 9.374332 16.255465 27.357665 44.200476 71.174027
2025-06-29 2.578129 4.998770 9.055344 16.104979 27.723592 45.683491 74.942201
2025-07-06 2.228501 4.479788 8.364439 15.290919 26.972468 45.398122 75.971449
2025-07-13 2.115509 4.377547 8.372856 15.643358 28.130127 48.141169 81.825715
2025-07-20 2.003775 4.266125 8.354392 15.943503 29.209734 50.799113 87.647603
2025-07-27 1.844080 4.046273 8.122928 15.850083 29.609171 52.361499 91.757090
2025-08-03 1.680985 3.802896 7.827747 15.618436 29.749128 53.491216 95.191635
2025-08-10 1.566367 3.645891 7.680429 15.642561 30.331313 55.373648 99.934562
2025-08-17 1.480793 3.540595 7.622686 15.826123 31.201477 57.772220 105.627214
2025-08-24 1.379666 3.391858 7.467945 15.813332 31.710011 59.563999 110.349692
2025-08-31 1.272210 3.218147 7.249217 15.660219 31.946648 60.884270 114.301272
2025-09-07 1.202403 3.121584 7.178774 15.790372 32.713031 63.159578 119.986240